We are about 2 weeks from the beginning of the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) to be held in Glasgow. This is the most important climate conference of the year, it’s been held annually (except for last year) since 1995. This year’s COP is the most important COP since 2015 and represents a rare opportunity to get us on the right path towards a carbon neutral economy.
However, the COP is riddled with potential pitfalls. The system itself has been around for 27 years and done very little to slow down our increase in Greenhouse Gasses (GHG). In fact, carbon emissions have risen sharply since 1995, driven largely by an increase in coal production in China, India, and other “emerging” markets. Meanwhile, most developed countries, especially the United States, have done little reduce their emissions. There has never been a meaningful piece of climate legislation passed by the US Congress.
The high water mark of the COP system came in 2015 at COP21 in Paris. You may have heard of the “Paris Agreement”, well this was a product of COP21. This agreement was the largest and most comprehensive global agreement on climate change in human history. It set a goal of keeping warming under 2o C with a reach goal of 1.5o C.
There are almost zero countries on pace to meet their targets, which require the world to be carbon neutral by 2050 (or more accurately, to be carbon neutral before we burn up all of our remaining carbon budget). At the current pace, we will pass the 2o tipping point by 2030.
As I’ve said before, this conference may be our “last, best chance” to start moving in the right direction. There are a confluence of factors, the looming US elections, the rapidly-approaching deadlines, and the time required to decarbonize that make this a key inflection point.
The thing is, this is not the first “last, best chance” we’ve had. 2015 was a last best chance. There were probably others. However, we may not get another chance to keep warming under 2o. Unfortunately, things aren’t looking very good. The UK government, which is hosting the conference, has already moved the goal posts. President Biden’s big bills (both of which have climate provisions) appear to be floundering in Congress. President Xi Jinping of China just announced he won’t even be attending the conference.
There is still time to turn things around. If the Democrats can pass their bills with the climate provisions mostly in tact, then it will change the tone of the conference dramatically. If President Xi is not present, it opens the door for President Biden to take center stage. However, without a big win at home, it’s doubtful he’ll have much influence.
I expect the next few weeks will see an increase in the typically modest coverage of climate change. Only time will tell what happens at COP26. In the end, agreements and commitments mean nothing without implementation. As they say, talk is cheap.
I’ll follow the COP26 negotiations as closely as I can. We still have the two big bills working through Congress, and even if we get everything we want, we’ll need to turn our attention to the states, where more action is needed.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!
The Mangrove 