This week the Biden Administration released a roadmap to expand our solar energy capacity dramatically over the next 2 decades. The report is titled “The Solar Futures Study” and was created by the National Renewable Energy Lap (NREL) at the Department of Energy (DOE). The Biden Admin claims that solar, which currently supplies 4% of our electricity needs, could meet 45% of our needs by 2050. To get there, we would need a significant expansion in the amount of solar we install each year.
2020 was already a record year for solar installations, when 15 gigawatts of solar capacity were added to the grid. For reference, one average single family house needs roughly 10 kilowatts of capacity to meet their needs, so 15 gigawatts is approximately enough for 1.5 million homes. To get to 45% by 2050, we would need to double our annual installations every year from now until 2025 and then double them again, to 60 GW per year after that.
There are a huge number of challenges in doing this. First, it’s not so easy to double the amount of solar capacity installed in just one year. We need massive investments in supply chains, in worker training, and incentives. A great deal of this will have to be done by utilities, many of whom may resist adding so much solar to their generation assets. And, in order to hit this target without totally destabilizing the grid, we will need unprecedented investments in energy storage, as well as in transmission lines, both of which come with their own problems.
That’s not to say that we can’t do it. I am very pleased with the Biden Admin’s goals here. But we should be realistic about what it will take to get there.
Part of the administration’s plan involves something called a clean energy payment plan, this would be a subsidy for utilities to switch to renewables. Many utilities are slow to adopt changes, even if they are making big commitments on climate. The best way to get them there without a mandate (which can’t happen without Republican support) is with financial incentives.
Solar is, in many jurisdictions, the cheapest form of electricity. In some instances, it’s actually cheaper to build a solar facility than it is to keep running an old coal-fired power plant. However, while fossil fuel plants can be concentrated in specific locations (something that causes no shortage of environmental justice issues), solar facilities have to be spread out in much larger areas. Solar can also be put on houses, businesses, over parking lots or parking decks, or even above roads. The grid was designed for large, centralized power plants, not distributed energy resources like solar. And, the best solar resources are often far from population centers. This means that we need colossal investments in the electrical grid, including the construction of large (unsightly) transmission lines. These are all significant challenges that a require funding, as well as advocacy (who wants power lines running through their neighborhood?).
The challenge to make this happen is enormous, but the potential rewards are even greater. In addition to lower carbon emissions, we would drastically cut all sorts of air pollution, including sulfur dioxide, smog, particulate matter, aerosols, and mercury. Cleaner air means healthier lungs.
The Biden plan is good and if we can implement it, we will begin the heavy work of moving ourselves away from the climate-altering experiment we’ve been performing for the past century.
However, as I’ve said, securing the funding is only the first step.
The Mangrove 